{"id":288,"date":"2004-08-25T18:44:26","date_gmt":"2004-08-26T02:44:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/archives\/2004\/08\/25\/the-wisdom-of-crowds\/"},"modified":"2004-08-25T18:48:26","modified_gmt":"2004-08-26T02:48:26","slug":"the-wisdom-of-crowds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/archives\/2004\/08\/25\/the-wisdom-of-crowds","title":{"rendered":"The Wisdom of Crowds"},"content":{"rendered":"

On my flight to Bal\u00adti\u00admore<\/a> about two months ago I read The Wis\u00addom of Crowds<\/a> by James Surowiec\u00adki. I actu\u00adal\u00adly did\u00adn\u2019t plan to buy the book\u2013I just saw an auto\u00adgraphed copy at Kepler\u2019s<\/a> and picked it up on impulse.<\/p>\n

The first page of the intro\u00adduc\u00adtion sucked me into wild intel\u00adlec\u00adtu\u00adal romp from which I\u2019m still recov\u00ader\u00ading.<\/p>\n

Since that flight I\u2019ve rec\u00adom\u00admend\u00aded it to dozens of peo\u00adple and pur\u00adchased it for two (to whom I owed a book). I\u2019ve been mean\u00ading to write about it ever since, but I kept get\u00adting dis\u00adtract\u00aded. Plus I saw that two of the blog\u00adgers I read com\u00adment\u00aded on it: Jor\u00addon Coop\u00ader<\/a> and Todd Hunter (who com\u00adment\u00aded not once<\/a>, not twice<\/a>, but thrice<\/a>), so I knew the book was get\u00adting the buzz it deserved. <\/p>\n

So what\u2019s the big deal? What\u2019s the idea that is still rock\u00ading my world? Sim\u00adply this: giv\u00aden the right con\u00addi\u00adtions, diverse groups of peo\u00adple col\u00adlec\u00adtive\u00adly solve cer\u00adtain types of prob\u00adlems bet\u00adter than experts<\/em><\/str>. <\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t a bolt from the blue: the basic idea has been kick\u00ading around for a long time<\/a>, but the book is mag\u00adnif\u00adi\u00adcent nonethe\u00adless. The anec\u00addotes are pre\u00adcise and illu\u00admi\u00adnat\u00ading, the data is detailed, doc\u00adu\u00adment\u00aded, and con\u00advinc\u00ading, and the writ\u00ading sparkles.<\/p>\n

What Prob\u00adlems Do Groups Solve Bet\u00adter?<\/str>
\nThere are some prob\u00adlems you need experts to han\u00addle (prob\u00adlems of skill are the most impor\u00adtant kind: land\u00ading a plane or oper\u00adat\u00ading on the brain are good exam\u00adples), but there are sev\u00ader\u00adal broad types of prob\u00adlems that groups tend to out\u00adper\u00adform experts on:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Cog\u00adni\u00adtion Prob\u00adlems: ques\u00adtions with fac\u00adtu\u00adal answers
    \nHow many jel\u00adly beans are in a jar?
    \nWhere is a sunken sub\u00adma\u00adrine?<\/li>\n
  2. Coor\u00addi\u00adna\u00adtion Prob\u00adlems: how do we all work togeth\u00ader when it\u2019s in our best inter\u00adest to do so?
    \nHow can we dri\u00adve safe\u00adly in heavy traf\u00adfic?
    \nHow should we deliv\u00ader this prod\u00aduct to mar\u00adket?<\/li>\n
  3. Coop\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtion Prob\u00adlems: how do we work togeth\u00ader when we have diver\u00adgent goals and val\u00adues?
    \nHow can we con\u00adtrol pol\u00adlu\u00adtion while pro\u00admot\u00ading indus\u00adtry?
    \nHow can bor\u00adrow\u00aders get mon\u00adey from lenders at the best rate for each?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Under What Con\u00addi\u00adtions Do Groups Solve These Prob\u00adlems Bet\u00adter?<\/str><\/p>\n

    There are four key qual\u00adi\u00adties that make a crowd smart. It needs to be diverse<\/str>, so that peo\u00adple are bring\u00ading dif\u00adfer\u00adent pieces of infor\u00adma\u00adtion to the table. It needs to be decen\u00adtral\u00adized<\/str>, so that no one at the top is dic\u00adtat\u00ading the crowd\u2019s answer. It needs a way of sum\u00adma\u00adriz\u00ading peo\u00adple\u2019s opin\u00adions into one col\u00adlec\u00adtive ver\u00addict<\/str>. And the peo\u00adple in the crowd need to be inde\u00adpen\u00addent<\/str>, so that they pay atten\u00adtion most\u00adly to their own infor\u00adma\u00adtion, and not wor\u00adry\u00ading about what every\u00adone around them thinks.
    \nfrom     The Wis\u00addom of Crowds Q &A<\/a>, empha\u00adsis added <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Note that these cri\u00adte\u00adria (diver\u00adsi\u00adty, decen\u00adtral\u00adiza\u00adtion, aggre\u00adga\u00adtion, and inde\u00adpen\u00addence) often tend to move us towards a solu\u00adtion that not every\u00adone is hap\u00adpy with. In Surowieck\u00adi\u2019s own words:<\/p>\n

    \nThe wis\u00addom of crowds isn\u2019t about con\u00adsen\u00adsus. It real\u00adly emerges from dis\u00adagree\u00adment and even con\u00adflict. It\u2019s what you might call the aver\u00adage opin\u00adion of the group, but it\u2019s not an opin\u00adion that every one in the group can agree on. So that means you can\u2019t find col\u00adlec\u00adtive wis\u00addom via com\u00adpro\u00admise.
    \nfrom     The Wis\u00addom of Crowds Q &A<\/a><\/em>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    What Can Go Wrong?<\/str>
    \nWhen any of the above cri\u00adte\u00adria are not met, groups often per\u00adform abysmal\u00adly worse than experts or even iso\u00adlat\u00aded idiots. Some spe\u00adcif\u00adic chal\u00adlenges:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Cas\u00adcades (p 40f and through\u00adout the book): peo\u00adple imi\u00adtate each oth\u00ader with\u00adout under\u00adstand\u00ading and every\u00adbody jumps off a cliff because all their friends did. Think about the stock mar\u00adket in the late 90s.<\/li>\n
    2. Group\u00adthink (p 36): peo\u00adple don\u2019t feel free to dis\u00adagree and groups reach sub\u00adop\u00adti\u00admal deci\u00adsions that almost every\u00adone can see a prob\u00adlem with but no one is will\u00ading to com\u00adment on. This is one of the car\u00addi\u00adnal sins of the Assem\u00adblies of God, by the way.<\/li>\n
    3. Polar\u00adiza\u00adtion (p184-190): peo\u00adple egg one anoth\u00ader on until the entire group adopts a more rad\u00adi\u00adcal view than any of the mem\u00adbers would have advo\u00adcat\u00aded going in.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Sum\u00adma\u00adry Thoughts<\/str>
      \nSurowieck\u00adi\u2019s real con\u00adtri\u00adbu\u00adtion, in my esti\u00adma\u00adtion, is detail\u00ading the cri\u00adte\u00adria under which groups out\u00adper\u00adform experts and the con\u00addi\u00adtions under which groups fail cat\u00ada\u00adstrop\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly. <\/p>\n

      Also, his end\u00adnotes rocked\u2013they\u2019re as good as the foot\u00adnotes in Gor\u00addon Fee\u2019s com\u00admen\u00adtary on 1st Corinthi\u00adans. If you read this book and did\u00adn\u2019t read the notes, go back and read them right now!<\/str><\/p>\n

      The most stim\u00adu\u00adlat\u00ading idea in the entire book for me was using of arti\u00adfi\u00adcial mar\u00adkets<\/a> to pre\u00addict future events (pages 17, 79, 103, 220\u2013221, espe\u00adcial\u00adly 278\u2013280, and 285). I have no idea how it applies to my con\u00adtext, but it was a fas\u00adci\u00adnat\u00ading con\u00adcept.<\/p>\n

      Learn More<\/str>
      \nYou can read       an excerpt from the book<\/a>, read an arti\u00adcle by the author<\/a> or hear him dis\u00adcuss the book on NPR<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      On my flight to Bal\u00adti\u00admore about two months ago I read The Wis\u00addom of Crowds by James Surowiec\u00adki. I actu\u00adal\u00adly did\u00adn\u2019t plan to buy the book\u2013I just saw an auto\u00adgraphed copy at Kepler\u2019s and picked it up on impulse. The first page of the intro\u00adduc\u00adtion sucked me into wild intel\u00adlec\u00adtu\u00adal romp from which I\u2019m still \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading \u201cThe Wis\u00addom of Crowds\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-resources-reviews"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Ded-4E","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}