{"id":288,"date":"2004-08-25T18:44:26","date_gmt":"2004-08-26T02:44:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/archives\/2004\/08\/25\/the-wisdom-of-crowds\/"},"modified":"2004-08-25T18:48:26","modified_gmt":"2004-08-26T02:48:26","slug":"the-wisdom-of-crowds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/archives\/2004\/08\/25\/the-wisdom-of-crowds","title":{"rendered":"The Wisdom of Crowds"},"content":{"rendered":"

On my flight to Baltimore<\/a> about two months ago I read The Wisdom of Crowds<\/a> by James Surowiecki. I actually didn\u2019t plan to buy the book\u2013I just saw an autographed copy at Kepler\u2019s<\/a> and picked it up on impulse.<\/p>\n

The first page of the introduction sucked me into wild intellectual romp from which I\u2019m still recovering.<\/p>\n

Since that flight I\u2019ve recommended it to dozens of people and purchased it for two (to whom I owed a book). I\u2019ve been meaning to write about it ever since, but I kept getting distracted. Plus I saw that two of the bloggers I read commented on it: Jordon Cooper<\/a> and Todd Hunter (who commented not once<\/a>, not twice<\/a>, but thrice<\/a>), so I knew the book was getting the buzz it deserved. <\/p>\n

So what\u2019s the big deal? What\u2019s the idea that is still rocking my world? Simply this: given the right conditions, diverse groups of people collectively solve certain types of problems better than experts<\/em><\/str>. <\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t a bolt from the blue: the basic idea has been kicking around for a long time<\/a>, but the book is magnificent nonetheless. The anecdotes are precise and illuminating, the data is detailed, documented, and convincing, and the writing sparkles.<\/p>\n

What Problems Do Groups Solve Better?<\/str>
\nThere are some problems you need experts to handle (problems of skill are the most important kind: landing a plane or operating on the brain are good examples), but there are several broad types of problems that groups tend to outperform experts on:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Cognition Problems: questions with factual answers
    \nHow many jelly beans are in a jar?
    \nWhere is a sunken submarine?<\/li>\n
  2. Coordination Problems: how do we all work together when it\u2019s in our best interest to do so?
    \nHow can we drive safely in heavy traffic?
    \nHow should we deliver this product to market?<\/li>\n
  3. Cooperation Problems: how do we work together when we have divergent goals and values?
    \nHow can we control pollution while promoting industry?
    \nHow can borrowers get money from lenders at the best rate for each?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Under What Conditions Do Groups Solve These Problems Better?<\/str><\/p>\n

    There are four key qualities that make a crowd smart. It needs to be diverse<\/str>, so that people are bringing different pieces of information to the table. It needs to be decentralized<\/str>, so that no one at the top is dictating the crowd\u2019s answer. It needs a way of summarizing people\u2019s opinions into one collective verdict<\/str>. And the people in the crowd need to be independent<\/str>, so that they pay attention mostly to their own information, and not worrying about what everyone around them thinks. 
    \nfrom     The Wisdom of Crowds Q &A<\/a>, emphasis added <\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    Note that these criteria (diversity, decentralization, aggregation, and independence) often tend to move us towards a solution that not everyone is happy with. In Surowiecki\u2019s own words:<\/p>\n

    \nThe wisdom of crowds isn\u2019t about consensus. It really emerges from disagreement and even conflict. It\u2019s what you might call the average opinion of the group, but it\u2019s not an opinion that every one in the group can agree on. So that means you can\u2019t find collective wisdom via compromise.
    \nfrom     The Wisdom of Crowds Q &A<\/a><\/em>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    What Can Go Wrong?<\/str>
    \nWhen any of the above criteria are not met, groups often perform abysmally worse than experts or even isolated idiots. Some specific challenges:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Cascades (p 40f and throughout the book): people imitate each other without understanding and everybody jumps off a cliff because all their friends did. Think about the stock market in the late 90s.<\/li>\n
    2. Groupthink (p 36): people don\u2019t feel free to disagree and groups reach suboptimal decisions that almost everyone can see a problem with but no one is willing to comment on. This is one of the cardinal sins of the Assemblies of God, by the way.<\/li>\n
    3. Polarization (p184-190): people egg one another on until the entire group adopts a more radical view than any of the members would have advocated going in.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Summary Thoughts<\/str>
      \nSurowiecki\u2019s real contribution, in my estimation, is detailing the criteria under which groups outperform experts and the conditions under which groups fail catastropically. <\/p>\n

      Also, his endnotes rocked\u2013they\u2019re as good as the footnotes in Gordon Fee\u2019s commentary on 1st Corinthians. If you read this book and didn\u2019t read the notes, go back and read them right now!<\/str><\/p>\n

      The most stimulating idea in the entire book for me was using of artificial markets<\/a> to predict future events (pages 17, 79, 103, 220\u2013221, especially 278\u2013280, and 285). I have no idea how it applies to my context, but it was a fascinating concept.<\/p>\n

      Learn More<\/str>
      \nYou can read       an excerpt from the book<\/a>, read an article by the author<\/a> or hear him discuss the book on NPR<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      On my flight to Baltimore about two months ago I read The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki. I actually didn\u2019t plan to buy the book\u2013I just saw an autographed copy at Kepler\u2019s and picked it up on impulse. The first page of the introduction sucked me into wild intellectual romp from which I\u2019m still \u2026 Continue reading \u201cThe Wisdom of Crowds\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-resources-reviews"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6Ded-4E","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glenandpaula.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}